PIT ML vs ARI ARI +107 / PIT -129 • O/U 8.5
Board 0729-5055 · posted 1019h ago
On the boardRevealed
LeagueMLB
SelectionPIT ML vs ARI
OddsARI +107 / PIT -129 • O/U 8.5
Risk / Win$100 → $77.52
State at postMLB • ARI @ PIT • Jul 29, 12:35 PM ET
Slips in60 / 60
Outcomeunsettled
Hedge Threshold EngineReference
| FAV | DOG | DE-VIG | AL+ | REQ. GAP | VERDICT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -105 | -115 | 49.0% | 0.09410 | 10.3pp | hold |
| -110 | -109 | 50.1% | 0.09192 | 10.1pp | hold |
| -118 | -102 | 51.7% | 0.08881 | 9.7pp | hold |
| -125 | +104 | 53.1% | 0.08643 | 9.4pp | hold |
| -135 | +112 | 54.9% | 0.08346 | 8.9pp | hold |
| -150 | +124 | 57.4% | 0.07976 | 8.4pp | hold |
| -175 | +144 | 60.8% | 0.07503 | 7.6pp | switch |
| -200 | +164 | 63.7% | 0.07150 | 7.0pp | switch |
| -250 | +201 | 68.3% | 0.06657 | 6.0pp | switch |
| -350 | +273 | 74.4% | 0.06096 | 4.8pp | switch |
| -500 | +370 | 79.7% | 0.05678 | 3.6pp | switch |
Highlighted row nearest this board's ML -129.
RevealUnsettled
Room says wins57%
Mean confidence59%
Dispersion (σ)21 pp
Poster's hidden call60%
Predicted − actual gap+3 pp
Slips counted60
THRESHOLD · 8PP ON A 129-SIZE ML
Predicted 60% · Actual 57% · Gap +3pp.
HEDGE SIGNAL · NO HEDGE SIGNAL
RECOMMENDATION: RIDE THE TICKET — NO HEDGE
Gap +3pp — inside noise for a 129-size ML (threshold 8pp). Room agrees with your read.
Read the rule →GAMBLING RISK DISCLAIMER
Shared Opportunity is an analytics and dispersion tool, not betting advice. The hedge signal describes what the room said — it does not guarantee any outcome. Wagering carries real financial risk; hedging costs juice and can still lose. Bet only what you can afford to lose, follow the laws in your jurisdiction, and if gambling stops being fun call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org. 21+ (18+ where legal).
Market SnapshotReference
Room win belief57%
Poster predicted 60%+3pp gap
Model Confidence
High
Volatility Index
High
De-vigged fair line on the favorite: 53.1%·Room is above fair value by 3.9pp·Snapshot based on 60 slips.